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Prediction for CME (2023-05-05T08:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-05-05T08:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24943/-1
CME Note: Halo CME associated with M2.1 flare from AR13296 (N15E30). From LASSOS team discussion: Arrival on 5/7 is indicated by a sheath crossing and high field strength. No flux rope is observed in this signature. (There could even be 2 iCMEs in this signature, potentially merged). Another candidate CME for this arrival could be 2023-05-04T09:09Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-07T13:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-07T20:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 75.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2023 May 06 1328 UTC
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# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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The partial halo coronal mass ejections (CME) was observed in the morning of May 05, first time seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 07:48 UTC. The  partial halo was the result of two CMEs, associated with the C9.5-class flare (from NOAA Active Region 3297 on May 05, peaking at 07:06 UTC) and the M2.1-class flare (from NOAA Active Region 3296 on May 05, peaking at 08:01 UTC). Those two CMEs show an Earth directed component and are expected to arrive on May 07 at the end of the day.
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# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #

Lead Time: 24.00 hour(s)
Difference: -7.17 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-05-06T13:20Z

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